In general said: this gen will be longer then about the average 5 years already for one thing alone...
The past gens had old hardware on board already when they launched, compared to the PC market. This gen had bleeding edge high tech stuff on board that was even not/hot on the PC market. Just compare this:
XBOX 1: Celeron 733mhz CPU, Geforce 3 GPU and 64MB Ram. Launched at the end of 2001, while this stuff was on the PC market for what, 3 years at least at that point in time? PS2/Gamecube same story.
360/PS3 had stuff inside that wasn't on the market, or very expensive. The triple core PowerPC 3.2 Ghz each core was the CPU that Apple never got (and they jumped ship to Intel), and a triple core CPU for PC at the end of 2005 costed what, 800 bucks or so? The GPU, special build was as powerfull as the newest PC GPU cards at that time, and those even didn't have a second die with 10MB to do some AA stuff 'for free'. Only the Ram dissapointed me a bit on both, 512MB. If they put in 1GB it would have been a bit more future proof.
On the other hand, hardware improves maybe even on a faster rate, so I personally would still like the 5 to 6 years lifecycle and buy new stuff but well...
On the other hand, both MS and Sony will look at Nintendo how they catched the casual market. Because of that (boooo Nintendo) we might see them upgrading for next gen with not too big steps compared to the current gen consoles and will focus more on controls (as Natal) and the software interface to make things easier (pictures and not only words, like NXE, something were XMB lacks appeal to others then hardcore gamers).
Microsoft has the upperhand in this all, as software companies are much more flexible, also to redirect their hardware they can shift to who ever they like to produce.
Whats the most interesting part in all this, is to see what Nintendo will do. Will they release a Wii HD in 2010 to be able to catch the market again (now that sales go down), maybe the Wii 1.0 buyers then again can be hyped for upgrading?
joe382
I am thinking, if the xbox 3 does come out first then it had better improve on graphics and what not quite substantially otherwise Sony could possibly hold out on the PS4 and keep going with the PS3 (depending on whether its selling well). This could hurt Microsofts head start because people might not have a good enough reason to buy a next gen console. I worded that so poorly.
Wut? The 360 and PS3 can do about the same, don't be stupid now. Both consoles have its advantages in certain small areas but overall they'll be able to do the same. Sony can't miss out on the next gen launch and be late to the party again. Sony will try to be out first, or at least at the same time as Microsoft.