TheMART at Xboxkings
One thing you didn't take into account though, if WiiU takes a pricedrop, Sony also is able to drop the price of the PS3 even when PS4 is there, and ofcourse MS the price of the 360 when the 720 is out.
Because basically, those 3 will get the same kind of games/ports for the coming time. The WiiU won't really be competing with the PS4/720, those will get the hardcore gamers first.
Seeing that the PS3 one can buy for around 200 to 230 bucks, a 360 not sure but probably about the same or just below, if they drop another 50 bucks, then the WiiU has to come down a lot from 300 to 350 bucks.
So either way, even with PS4/720 at launch being more expensive at 400 to 500, even a pricecut for WiiU won't do much as both Sony and MS will use their current gen devices as kind of 'fighting brands' to keep the market share with their brand on top. I really think Nintendo has brought themselve in a bad position now. Wii has a low pricelevel now, but consumers really have seem to abandoned the Wii hypetrain with the Wiimote for some time even at a low price. Even casuals now finally want HD consoles for their HDTVs.
Yeah, you're thinking a little bit too much on ports and third-party games. First party is why most people go Nintendo.
Oh no, I know that those 1st party games push systems, but... Wii was pushed the most by the Wiimote and Wiisports and also the hardware/software Wiifit stuff.
1st party games didn't sell the Gamecube, now did it?
The 1st party games alone won't make the big sales. And isn't Nintendos wish with this system that they would grab the hardcore gamer? When you only got 1st party, only the Mario and Zelda hardcore lovers will jump in. If you don't get, or get little 3rd party support the rest will leave that WiiU on the shelves to die, keep playing their PS360 and will jump straight on to the PS4/720.
Heck, even the less core, the more casual gamer will look at the WiiU and its direct competitors PS360 and say 'wait the latter has a far bigger library of games, and is the cheaper alternative'. As we all know that the mass of people buys a console at the magical pricelevel of 200 bucks and below.
So no, I am not just thinking in 3rd party. For the target group that Nintendo wishes to sell the system too though I am spot on with the post I made before. The WiiU is in between 2 camps. The cheaper camp PS360 that plays more 3rd party and those that are on WiiU aren't really better versions. The core gamers that don't mind to spend some more money on better consoles will go for PS4/720.
All that is left for WiiU then is the die hard Nintendo 1st party fan, not the true casual one (as pointed out that one was looking at Wiimote as a simple controller unlike the tablet that is basically for them the 'complicated' controller again just a touchscreen added, so you pretty much lost that target group).
Again, look at the Gamecube, it sold 20 mln units with all those 1st party IP's on board, you gotta think in more than just 1st party to succeed...
And one other thing with 3rd party, this:
Wii 3rd party sales dropping since 2010, it already had little 3rd party support. With Wii sales for 3rd party shrinking already, WiiU not really adding sales for them, 3rd party will turn away from WiiU more and more. And we all know what happens if studios like EA will drop their support with sport games all together... Console that gets no Fifa, Tiger Woods, Madden etc support won't do well.